🔗 Share this article

Two days remaining.

The English side's first Test in Australia starts on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It's tough to make runs, isn't it?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are even planning to show up.

A lot of the build-up has centred around the perceived difficulty of batting successfully, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to batting in Australia, particularly against fast bowling, no nation has been harder in which to score runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and durability of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average below 17.

Aside from Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home match without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have won by a combined 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, results have not been affected – England should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England struggled to identify an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Since Duckett and Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a factor in Zak Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who memorably hit the first ball of the last Ashes series for four, has also been identified as having the game for Australian conditions.

His average increases when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has brought him back, most likely returning to number three.

Across seven matches in the current year, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful gamble, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, spinners have averaged almost 44 in this country, though Lyon's record holds up well compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against India, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was brought in, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

The series began in the Gabba, where they have not won since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the tour are the identical, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

Perth stages an series opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the visitors approach with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the venue for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have won four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Every Test at the new venue has been claimed by the team batting first.

The English often overthink day-night matches, when data indicate the pink ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

The issue in {day-night matches|