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The Ashes may offer one cause for celebration, but this contest will also see the Aussie side host a greater number of birthdays than Timezone in the nineties. Recent addition Jake Weatherald celebrated his 31st a day prior to the squad was announced. Nathan Lyon turns 38 the day before the Test in Perth. Beau Webster reaches 32 just before the Brisbane match, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on the second day in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood turns 35 on the final day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 before January is out.

Ageing Team Fascination Grows

For a couple of years there has been growing curiosity with the age of this team and particularly the bowling unit. It is rare to have almost every player near a Test side being over 30, aside from novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and custody-weekend visitor Sam Konstas. But it wasn't necessarily true that greater age was a problem: a Test squad boasting a four-man attack with over 1,500 wickets between them is hardly a disadvantage, and it stands to reason that all of those bowlers are deep into their professional lives.

I've never felt this sure at the beginning of an away Ashes series | a former player

Perhaps what really highlighted the talking point is that the backup bowlers over that time, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also deep into their thirties. Emerging pacemen have briefly joined squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before vanishing for years with injury, meaning there has been no clear line of succession.

Change Imposed by Setbacks

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the Big Four plus Boland have continued backing up. Any side knows that having a group of same-generation players might mean a batch of similarly-timed retirements, but so far change has remained hypothetical: a process that would indeed be arriving the mountain when she comes, but one that had not steamed into view.

Now, abruptly, transition is here, imposed on this Australian squad in the span of a few weeks. The back injury to Pat Cummins was greeted with equanimity: he would probably only sit out the opening match, was the Cricket Australia view, and as the first bowling change behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could comfortably be covered for by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has gone down with a hamstring strain, the balance undergoes a far greater shift with two players absent rather than a single one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the balance and control that enables Starc’s left-arm pace and swing to be used more as a attacking option. Missing both of them means a fundamental shift in the balance of the team. Boland taking the new ball is nothing new in his first-class career, but he has been so successful in Test matches coming on after seven to eight overs of initial onslaught. Now he’ll likely have to be the opening bowler.

Debutant Faces Pressure

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at thirty-one years of age himself won’t be an intimidated youngster, but he might become an overawed 31-year-old. A packed stadium, partly English, for the opening Test of a deliriously anticipated Ashes series will not make for an simple first match, no matter how many media stories describe him as laid-back. He could be brought onto the field on a banana lounge and still be nervous.

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Who knows, it might all go swimmingly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not. What is striking is how rapidly Australia have moved from the certainty of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, and others. It's unclear what further injuries the first Test may cause. Who knows whether Cummins will be fit for Brisbane, and able to continue after Brisbane, given how complicated stress injuries can be. Who knows how long Hazlewood might be out, with a history of going down early in series and a pattern of initially small injuries becoming longer layoffs.

Outlook Uncertain

The latter part of the series may see the main four bowlers back together and all performing well. Or it might see transition setting in much sooner than the stretch goal of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is seemingly the next option and could be a great day-night Brisbane choice, but beyond that with choices uncertain. Sean Abbott was in the original team, though he’s now also injured and has never played a Test. Richardson has just had his injury-prone arm put back on, and this format is not the place for gradually starting one’s work. Beyond them lies the true uncertainty, and amid it all opportunity for the visiting team. You can sense that change a-coming, rolling round the bend, and England hasn't seen the success since they don’t know when.